Reference

    TBL Glossary

    By Updated

    Plain-English definitions for the macro, derivatives, on-chain, and TBL proprietary terms used across TBL's research. Each entry covers what the indicator measures and why it matters, conceptual form only, without proprietary formulas or live readings.

    The terms below appear across TBL's research, Pulse, and Pro letters, grouped by category.

    Macro and Liquidity Indicators

    MOVE Index
    The option-implied volatility of US Treasuries, constructed from one-month options on 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. MOVE measures how much price uncertainty the options market is pricing into the bond market over the near term. A rising MOVE signals collateral-system stress, dealer balance-sheet strain, and tighter financial conditions globally. MOVE is the first pillar of the TBL Liquidity framework.
    DXY (US Dollar Index)
    A trade-weighted measure of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. DXY is the master variable for global dollar funding conditions because non-US entities hold roughly half of the world's dollar-denominated debt. A strengthening DXY tightens conditions for those entities and propagates back into US markets through funding stress. DXY is the second pillar of the TBL Liquidity framework.
    IEF (7-10 Year Treasury ETF)
    The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, used as a proxy for the intermediate-duration segment of the US Treasury curve. The intermediate part of the curve is where most institutional duration sits, which makes IEF a clean proxy for the rate environment that prices duration risk and re-prices long-tail collateral. IEF is the third pillar of the TBL Liquidity framework.
    NFCI (Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index)
    A composite of risk, credit, and leverage indicators built by the Chicago Federal Reserve to summarize US financial conditions in a single number. Loose readings indicate conditions are accommodative for risk-taking; tight readings indicate stress is building. NFCI is a useful corroborating read alongside the TBL Liquidity Index, with NFCI focused narrowly on US conditions and TBL Liquidity built to read the global picture.
    Liquidity Impulse
    The rate-of-change measure of global liquidity that captures whether liquidity is accelerating or decelerating rather than just whether it is high or low. Liquidity impulse tends to lead asset prices because risk markets respond to changes in conditions, not absolute levels. Used as a leading indicator alongside the TBL Liquidity Index.

    Money Markets and Fed Plumbing

    SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)
    The benchmark overnight rate for secured borrowing in the US repo market, calculated from actual transactions in Treasury collateral. SOFR replaced LIBOR as the primary dollar-funding rate and now sits inside the Federal Reserve's policy corridor. Where SOFR sits relative to IORB tells you whether the system is in an ample-reserves regime or trending toward scarcity.
    IORB (Interest on Reserve Balances)
    The interest rate the Federal Reserve pays on reserves that commercial banks hold at the Fed. IORB sits at the top of the Fed's policy corridor and acts as a soft ceiling on overnight rates, since banks should not lend below this risk-free rate. Banks comparing IORB to other short-rate alternatives drive the marginal flow of reserves through the system.
    Fed Policy Corridor
    The band within which the Federal Reserve targets the overnight rate, bounded above by IORB (interest on reserve balances) and below by the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility rate. The corridor is the operational framework the Fed uses to keep market rates inside its target range. Where SOFR trades within the corridor signals whether the system is well-supplied with reserves or trending toward stress.
    Ample Reserves
    The Federal Reserve's operating regime since 2008, in which the level of bank reserves at the Fed is held high enough that overnight rates are controlled administratively (through IORB and ON RRP) rather than through small reserve-supply operations. When reserves run low relative to demand, the system exits ample-reserves territory, repo rates spike, and the MOVE Index tends to rise.
    TGA (Treasury General Account)
    The US Treasury's checking account at the Federal Reserve, which holds the cash balance Treasury uses to pay its bills. When Treasury builds the TGA, dollars flow out of bank reserves and into the Fed's liability column, draining liquidity. When Treasury draws down the TGA, the flow reverses and reserves return to the banking system. TGA dynamics are a major driver of short-term liquidity swings that show up in risk asset prices within weeks.

    On-Chain Bitcoin Indicators

    MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
    The ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, where realized cap is the sum of every coin valued at the price it last moved. MVRV measures how far above or below the aggregate cost basis Bitcoin is trading. High MVRV historically corresponds to cycle tops, while low MVRV corresponds to cycle bottoms.
    SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
    A read of whether coins moving on a given day are being spent at a profit or a loss. SOPR above 1.0 indicates aggregate spending in profit, while below 1.0 indicates aggregate spending in loss. SOPR variants exist for the aggregate market, for short-term holders specifically, and for long-term holders, with the cohort-restricted versions providing higher-resolution reads of holder behavior.
    Realized Price
    The average cost basis across all Bitcoin in existence, calculated as realized cap divided by circulating supply. Realized price is a single number representing where the aggregate holder set bought in. When Bitcoin trades above realized price, the aggregate holder is in profit; when it trades below, the aggregate holder is in loss.
    AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value)
    A measure of the relationship between actively transacted Bitcoin value and the broader investor cost basis. AVIV indicates whether the holder set is in aggregate profit or loss and whether the active part of the market is leading or lagging the broader cohort. Used alongside cost-basis percentile bands to give a fuller picture of where the holder set is sitting in relation to current price.
    URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution)
    A histogram of Bitcoin supply organized by the price at which each coin last moved. URPD shows where the supply is sitting in cost-basis terms and identifies the natural support and resistance zones based on holder concentration. TBL uses an invested-capital weighted version (URPD IC) that scales each cluster by dollar value invested rather than by BTC count, which is the more useful read for identifying structurally meaningful price levels.
    Puell Multiple
    The ratio of daily miner revenue in dollar terms to its 365-day moving average. The Puell Multiple identifies periods of unusual miner profitability (cycle tops) and unusual miner stress (cycle bottoms). Used as a bottom-finding and top-finding indicator inside the TBL Master Valuation composite.
    CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed)
    A bottom-finding on-chain model that tracks the cumulative dollar-value of coin-days destroyed in spending events. CVDD has historically marked cycle floors with notable accuracy and serves as a structural floor reference inside the TBL Master Valuation composite.
    TMM
    A quantile-based top-detection model used inside the TBL Master Valuation composite, designed to identify when Bitcoin's price is structurally extended relative to long-run cycle reference levels. TMM is one of the seven models whose individual percentile readings are aggregated into the Master Valuation score.

    TBL Proprietary Composites

    Master Valuation
    A TBL composite that combines seven quantile-based on-chain valuation models (MVRV, Power Law, SMA bands, CVDD, top-model variants, difficulty regression, and Puell Multiple) into a single 0-to-100 score. Each model independently maps Bitcoin's current price to a percentile of its historical distribution, and the composite averages across the seven to produce a single reading of cycle position. The Master Valuation is more reliable than any individual model because each captures a different slice of cycle behavior.
    Trend Master
    A TBL composite that combines fourteen components across five categories (technical analysis, derivatives, equities, flows, on-chain) into a single 0-to-100 score summarizing whether the overall Bitcoin picture is supportive, neutral, or contractionary. The Trend Master is the integration layer for the multi-signal framework, designed to reduce the risk of single-signal positioning errors.

    Market Structure

    ETF Cost Basis
    The weighted-average purchase price across an ETF's outstanding shares, calculated from the prices at which the underlying Bitcoin was acquired. For Bitcoin spot ETFs, the aggregate cost basis across the entire issuer cohort is a single number that tells you whether the marginal ETF holder is in profit or loss. When spot trades above the aggregate cost basis, ETF flows tend to be sticky. When spot trades below, redemption risk increases.

    Derivatives

    Gamma Exposure
    The dealer-positioning measure that tracks whether market makers are net long or net short options gamma at current price levels. Net long dealer gamma means hedging activity dampens price moves; net short gamma means hedging activity amplifies them. The gamma flip is the strike level where dealer positioning changes sign, and crosses through that level can produce sharp moves in either direction.
    25-Delta Skew
    The bias in the options market between put protection and call upside, measured at the 25-delta strike level on both sides of the at-the-money price. Persistent skew toward puts indicates hedging pressure and defensive positioning, while skew toward calls indicates speculative reach and risk-on positioning.
    IV Surface (Implied Volatility Surface)
    The full set of implied volatility levels across strikes and tenors, traced as a surface in three dimensions. Changes in the surface, particularly steepening of the front-end vol curve, often precede directional moves. The shape of the surface tells you where the options market is pricing the most uncertainty.
    Futures Basis
    The premium of futures prices over spot prices. Persistently high basis indicates speculative excess in the futures market, with traders willing to pay a premium for upside leverage. Negative basis indicates the opposite, with the futures market trading at a discount to spot, signaling stress or hedging demand.
    Funding Rate
    The periodic payment between long and short positions in perpetual futures contracts, designed to anchor the perpetual price to spot. Positive funding indicates aggregate long positioning paying short positioning, signaling speculative long pressure. Negative funding indicates the opposite, with shorts paying longs and signaling speculative short pressure or hedging. Funding rates are a high-frequency read of derivatives market sentiment.
    Keep Reading

    Related TBL Resources

    For the methodology that uses these terms, see the canonical framework pages on TBL Liquidity, Bitcoin and Global Liquidity, Treasury Volatility, ETF Flows and Market Structure, On-Chain Signals, and the Macro × On-Chain integration.

    For the live readings of these indicators, see TBL Pulse. For weekly written analysis, see TBL Pro.

    Framework · 01

    What Is TBL Liquidity?

    TBL Liquidity is a four-pillar composite framework that reads global financial conditions through Treasury volatility, the dollar, US Treasuries, and global banking assets, and translates them into a directional signal for Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and other risk assets.

    Four PillarsMOVE IndexDXYLiquidity ScoreCycle Indicator
    Read the framework →
    Framework · 05

    TBL Guide to On-Chain Bitcoin Signals

    On-chain data lets you read what Bitcoin holders are actually doing rather than what they say. TBL combines seven cost-basis and cycle valuation models into a single Master Valuation score from 0 to 100, and reads cohort behavior through short-term-holder MVRV, SOPR, the long-term-holder cost basis spread, and the URPD distribution.

    MVRVMaster ValuationURPDCohortsTrue Market Mean
    Read the framework →
    Framework · 06

    How TBL Combines Technical, On-Chain, Derivatives, Behavior and Flow Signals

    Single-signal analysis is dangerous for Bitcoin because market structure, and on-chain cohort behavior move on different clocks and can disagree for months at a time. TBL's Trend Master score reconciles fourteen components across technical analysis, derivatives, equities, flows, and on-chain into a single read, with cross-asset risk ratios and high-yield credit spreads as additional confirmation lenses.

    Trend Master14 ComponentsCross-AssetCredit Spreads
    Read the framework →
    What to Do Next

    The indicators defined here are tracked live on TBL Pulse and interpreted in weekly written form in TBL Pro.

    Open TBL Pulse Join TBL Pro